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Economists expect India to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with Q4 FY26 growth estimates ranging between 7.1-7.3 per cent. However, projections indicate growth could moderate in FY27 amid geopolitical tensions and external uncertainties.
India is set to release its Q4 FY26 and full-year FY26 gross domestic product (GDP) numbers on Friday, with economists expecting the economy to end the financial year on a strong note despite rising global uncertainties.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will announce the January-March quarter and FY26 GDP estimates later today.
Ahead of the release, most economists expect India’s Q4 growth to remain above the 7 per cent mark, supported by resilient domestic demand, government spending, services activity and improving consumption trends.
According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, India’s GDP growth is projected at 7.3 per cent in Q4 FY26, compared with 7 per cent growth recorded during the same quarter last year. The poll expects full-year FY26 GDP growth at 7.5 per cent.
SBI Research has projected India’s economy to grow around 7.2 per cent in Q4 FY26, with full-year FY26 growth estimated at 7.5 per cent. The report expects growth to moderate to 6.6 per cent in FY27 as the economy returns towards a more normal growth trajectory.
YES Bank also expects India’s GDP growth to ease to 6.6 per cent in FY27, highlighting risks from slowing global demand, trade uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions.
Several economists have pegged Q4 FY26 GDP growth in the 7.1-7.2 per cent range, arguing that while economic momentum remains healthy, the impact of global volatility could become more visible in the coming quarters.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s FY26 GDP growth at 7.6 per cent, reflecting confidence in the underlying strength of the economy.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran had earlier indicated that Q4 GDP growth could come above 7.3 per cent, supported by strong economic activity, while maintaining that India’s medium-term growth fundamentals remain intact.
However, economists are closely watching external risks heading into FY27.
Emkay Global has warned that the oil crisis may not be over yet, projecting Brent crude prices could move towards $90 per barrel if geopolitical tensions disrupt global supplies.
A sustained rise in crude prices could pose risks for India through higher inflation, a wider import bill and pressure on corporate margins.
Possible El Niño conditions, uncertainty around global trade, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and volatility in financial markets are also seen as key risks for FY27.
Despite these concerns, analysts believe India remains better placed than most major economies due to strong domestic consumption, infrastructure spending, healthy balance sheets and continued policy support.
The GDP print will be closely tracked by markets as it will provide fresh signals on the strength of India’s growth momentum and the policy path ahead.
Prediction tracker:
CNBC-TV18 poll:
Q4 FY26 GDP: 7.3 per cent
FY26 GDP: 7.5 per cent
SBI Research:
Q4 FY26 GDP: 7.2 per cent
FY26 GDP: 7.5 per cent
FY27 GDP forecast: 6.6 per cent
YES Bank:
FY27 GDP forecast: 6.6 per cent
Economist estimates:
Q4 FY26 GDP: 7.1-7.2 per cent
CEA V Anantha Nageswaran:
Q4 growth expectation: Above 7.3 per cent
RBI estimate:
FY26 GDP projection: 7.6 per cent
First Published:
June 05, 2026, 14:37 IST
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