India-Poland trade at $6.36 billion. Can defence and technology take it to $10 billion?

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to India puts a $10 billion bilateral trade ambition in focus, with defence manufacturing, advanced technology and industrial investment emerging as potential drivers of growth.

Tusk is visiting India from October 21 to 23, with talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi scheduled for October 22 in New Delhi. Business forums in New Delhi and Bengaluru on October 22 and 23, respectively, are expected to bring companies and officials together to explore investment and technology partnerships.

India-Poland bilateral trade reached $6.36 billion in 2025, up from $5.80 billion in 2024, according to figures published by the Indian Embassy in Warsaw. The two countries are looking to raise annual trade to $10 billion, although achieving that ambition will require sustained growth in exports, investment and industrial cooperation.

The proposed expansion comes as both sides seek to deepen the strategic partnership established during Modi’s visit to Poland in August 2024. Defence, space technology, mining, advanced manufacturing and shipbuilding are among the areas identified for closer economic cooperation.

Trade growth will depend on market access

India has a trade surplus with Poland, with Indian exports reaching $4.83 billion in 2025 against imports of $1.53 billion. The export basket includes pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals, engineering goods, vehicles and electrical machinery. Poland supplies India with machinery, metals, chemicals and specialised manufactured products.

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The trade relationship has expanded considerably over the past decade. Bilateral trade rose from $1.95 billion in 2013 to $6.36 billion in 2025, according to the embassy’s figures.

However, the two economies still have room to deepen commercial engagement. Businesses will need to identify products and services that can compete in each other’s markets, establish local partnerships and address regulatory and market-access barriers.

For Poland, a larger presence in India could open opportunities in one of the world’s major consumer and industrial markets. For Indian exporters, stronger ties with Poland could support access to Central and Eastern Europe and create links with wider European supply chains.

The latest available data also indicate continued trade activity in 2026. Bilateral trade totalled $3.20 billion between January and June, including Indian exports of $2.41 billion and imports from Poland of $794 million. The second-half performance will help determine whether annual trade can build on the 2025 level.

Defence manufacturing could deepen industrial ties

Defence is another potential area for cooperation as Poland looks to expand its economic engagement with India. Discussions could explore military equipment, drones, maintenance, research and development, and opportunities for industrial collaboration.

Polish officials have indicated an interest in expanding defence exports to India, including drone-related cooperation. Such proposals could create opportunities for Indian companies if they lead to joint production, technology partnerships or longer-term supply arrangements.

The commercial value of defence cooperation, for India, will depend on the terms of any agreements, including the scope for domestic manufacturing, technology transfer and participation by Indian suppliers.

The two countries could also explore dual-use technologies, which have both civilian and defence applications. These include surveillance systems, advanced electronics, cybersecurity and certain space-based capabilities.

Space and technology offer another route to growth

Technology partnerships could help broaden the relationship beyond conventional merchandise trade. Bengaluru, which hosts a large technology ecosystem and aerospace industry, is expected to be an important stop during Tusk’s visit.

The India-Poland business engagements are expected to focus on information and communications technology and the space sector. Potential areas of cooperation include artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, satellite applications, aerospace research and startup partnerships.

Polish space company ICEYE, which specialises in synthetic aperture radar satellite technology, has previously pursued partnerships with Indian space companies. Its technology can capture radar imagery in darkness and through cloud cover, making it relevant to disaster monitoring, infrastructure assessment and security applications.

Any further agreements announced during the visit could provide a more concrete indication of how the two countries intend to build commercial links in advanced technology.

Research partnerships between Polish institutions and Indian universities could also help develop technical skills, support joint innovation and connect startups with new markets. The business case will depend on whether these collaborations produce commercially viable products and sustained investment.

Investment can help bridge the trade gap

Investment is another potential driver of closer economic ties. Indian investments in Poland exceed $3 billion, according to the Indian Embassy in Warsaw. Indian technology companies, including Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCL Technologies and Wipro, have established operations in the country.

These businesses give Indian companies a base in the European market while employing local professionals and building relationships with European clients.

Polish investment in India is smaller, at approximately $635 million, according to the embassy’s bilateral brief. Companies from Poland operate in sectors including packaging, hygiene products and automotive components.