India Q4 GDP grows XX per cent; FY26 growth at XX per cent despite global headwinds – Firstpost

India’s economy expanded 7.8 per cent in the January-March quarter (Q4 FY26), according to data released by the government on Friday, reflecting continued momentum in domestic activity despite rising global uncertainties.

For the full financial year FY26, India’s real GDP growth stood at 7.7 per cent, compared with 7.1 per cent in FY25, reinforcing its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Q4 and full-year FY26 GDP numbers on Friday.

Ahead of the official release, economists had largely expected India’s growth momentum to remain healthy. A CNBC-TV18 poll had projected GDP growth of around 7.3 per cent for the March quarter and 7.5 per cent for FY26. Other estimates had pegged Q4 growth slightly lower at around 7.1-7.2 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and government estimates had also indicated that the economy was likely to maintain growth above 7 per cent in FY26.

While India’s domestic economy remained resilient, economists warned that global uncertainties could weigh on growth in FY27. YES Bank projected India’s GDP growth to moderate to around 6.6 per cent in FY27, citing external risks, slowing global demand and uncertainty around trade conditions.

Similarly, SBI Research estimated FY27 growth at 6.6 per cent, with quarterly growth likely to remain in the 6.5-6.8 per cent range. The report noted that while rural demand remains supported by healthy farm and non-farm activity, global developments will remain a key monitorable.

Energy prices have emerged as another major risk factor for India’s economic outlook. Emkay Global warned that the oil crisis may not be completely over, projecting Brent crude could rise towards $90 per barrel if supply disruptions intensify amid geopolitical tensions.

A sharp increase in crude prices remains a concern for India, which imports more than 80 per cent of its oil requirements, as higher prices could impact inflation, trade deficit and growth prospects.

Economists said the impact of West Asia tensions, energy market volatility and global financial conditions could be reflected more clearly in FY27 numbers. Despite these risks, India’s growth continues to be supported by government capital expenditure, improving consumption trends and resilient services activity.

The latest GDP numbers come at a time when policymakers are balancing strong domestic growth with an increasingly uncertain global environment.