Why Indonesia’s salt farmers are cheering a drought

For most farmers, a drought is a disaster. For Indonesia’s salt producers, it has become a windfall. As El Nino intensifies across Southeast Asia, the same scorching heat that threatens food crops is delivering bumper salt harvests.

The contrasting fortunes of Indonesia’s farmers come at a time when economists are warning that climate shocks, coupled with geopolitical conflicts, could reignite global food inflation. Wars in West Asia and Ukraine have already disrupted fuel and fertiliser supplies, while delayed monsoons in major agricultural producers such as India are raising fresh concerns over crop output.

El Nino turns into a blessing for salt farmers

Indonesia is grappling with an intensifying El Nino, a climate pattern that typically brings hotter and drier conditions across much of Southeast Asia. By July, more than half of the country’s seasonal zones were experiencing a longer-than-expected dry season, which is expected to peak in August. The country’s weather agency has warned that El Nino could persist into early 2027.

While prolonged dry weather poses a serious threat to food crops, it is ideal for Indonesia’s traditional salt industry, which relies on evaporating seawater in shallow coastal ponds.

Even a brief spell of rain can interrupt the crystallisation process, reducing both output and quality. This year’s prolonged dry spell has therefore significantly boosted production.

Production surges in Cirebon

The benefits are already visible in Cirebon, one of Indonesia’s major salt-producing regions.

According to Reuters’ report, citing an official at the Cirebon Regency Food Security and Fisheries Agency, salt production in the region reached nearly 600 metric tonnes in July, compared with just 25 to 30 tonnes during the same month last year.

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With dry conditions expected to continue through October, officials are forecasting a bumper harvest.

Cirebon’s salt fields cover around 1,400 hectares, but they represent only a small part of Indonesia’s wider salt industry, which spans 10 production regions across the archipelago.

Nationally, the industry is recovering after weather-related setbacks.

Data from Indonesia’s Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries showed salt production fell to 1 million tonnes last year after a shorter-than-normal dry season followed by La Niña, which typically brings wetter weather. During the previous El Nino event in 2023, production reached 2.5 million tonnes.

Climate risks are driving food inflation concerns

The boom in Indonesia’s salt fields comes against a far more worrying backdrop for global agriculture.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that global food prices are likely to start rising again by the end of 2026, with the effects becoming more pronounced next year.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero recently told Reuters that higher commodity prices typically take three to six months to filter through to retail food prices.

The risks are being amplified by conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine, which have disrupted energy and fertiliser supplies. Higher crude oil prices increase the cost of irrigation, transportation, food processing and packaging, while natural gas — a key ingredient in fertiliser production — has also become more expensive.

Together with climate-related disruptions, these factors are increasing production costs for farmers around the world and putting pressure on future food supplies.

India remains a key watchpoint

India’s monsoon has also become a closely watched factor for global food markets.

As the world’s largest rice exporter and second-largest producer, India’s delayed and weaker-than-normal monsoon initially sparked concerns over rice production and global food supplies.

However, a recent report by Bajaj Asset Management said the broader economic impact is likely to remain limited despite near-term pressure on food inflation.

The report noted that rainfall improved significantly during the last week of June and remained strong through July. Reservoir levels have recovered, while India’s food grain stocks stand at around five times the prescribed buffer level, providing a cushion against cereal shortages.

It also pointed to resilient rural demand despite delayed sowing. Tractor sales rose 19 per cent year-on-year in May, while agricultural credit growth accelerated to nearly 15 per cent. The report expects consumer price inflation to average 5-5.5 per cent in FY27, driven mainly by temporary food supply pressures.

If rainfall continues to improve through August and September, concerns over a deficient monsoon could ease considerably, it added.

One climate event, very different outcomes

Indonesia’s weather agency has advised crop farmers to adjust planting schedules as drought conditions persist. The country has also seen more than 5,000 wildfire hotspots this year, highlighting the broader environmental consequences of the prolonged dry spell.

For Indonesia’s salt producers, El Nino has become an unexpected blessing. For the rest of the world’s farmers, it is another reminder that climate volatility is reshaping agriculture — and could soon be felt in grocery bills across the globe.

With inputs from agencies.