Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon


A farmer walks on dry farmland in Shivamogga district, Karnataka, on September 16, 2026.

A farmer walks on dry farmland in Shivamogga district, Karnataka, on September 16, 2026.
| Photo Credit: S.K. Dinesh/File photo

In the summer of 1997, one of the strongest El Niños of the 20th century took shape in the Pacific Ocean. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a monsoon rainfall deficit of 8% below the average, as was expected in El Niño years. However, by the end of September that year, rainfall levels were nearly normal.

This year, a “ferocious” El Niño is taking shape, and is expected to peak only in December. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended nearly 13% below the long-term average of 87 cm. East and Northeast India had their driest season since records began in 1901.

  • Related Posts

    Science Snapshots: November 1, 2026

    A view of the Rub al-Khali quarter of the desert in Saudi Arabia in 2007. | Photo Credit: Javierblas (CC BY-SA) Even in a desert, early humans sought more than…

    Continue reading
    Explained | What is the Gaia space mission and what has it revealed about the Milky Way?

    An artist’s impression shows Gaia mapping the stars of the Milky Way. Photo: Reuters via European Space Agency The story so far: The third dataset released by the European Space…

    Continue reading