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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other core members are expected to skip any change at Sunday’s online meeting as Gulf output remains about 5 million bpd below pre-war levels, sources say.
OPEC+ oil-producing nations are expected to hold their crude production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Both spoke on condition of anonymity and cautioned that no final decision has been made.
The online meeting of the group’s seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, comes as Gulf producers ramp up exports that have been disrupted for months by the Iran war. Most of them are still pumping well below their assigned quotas.
Gulf output still far below pre-war levels
OPEC data shows the seven core producers pumped 25.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, up 630,000 bpd from July. That is still roughly 5 million bpd below the levels seen in February, before the conflict began.
The disruption means Gulf members are falling short of their targets even as those targets have been raised. OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, had been increasing output targets for most of the year but kept them unchanged for October.
Focus shifts to 2027 quotas
In September, the group completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut first agreed in 2023. A further layer of cuts, about 2 million bpd covering most members, remains in place through the end of 2026.
More from BusinessReuters reported in July that OPEC+ was likely to make no changes to targets during the fourth quarter as it turns to negotiations over 2027 quotas. Before setting 2027 baselines, which will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind the remaining cuts, the group must finalise a review of members’ production capacity. U.S. consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected to submit its capacity report soon, sources said.
A separate panel, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which does not decide policy, will also meet on Sunday to review market conditions. OPEC and Russian authorities did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
