War or no war: India-GCC aviation capacity is nearly back to pre-war times

On the night of February 28, 2026, a military conflict began in West Asia. Termed Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Roaring Lion by Israel, the conflict led to the immediate closure of airspace over the Arabian Peninsula, as attacks and counterattacks led to the airspace being termed unsafe.

Flights were diverted, and passengers were stuck for days at the airport amid the escalating conflict; the Middle East, often referred to as the gateway to the world from India, came to a standstill due to its strong carriers. Indian carriers also reacted quickly and cancelled flights, primarily to protect their aircraft, passengers, and crew. The initial impact was felt in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and then Saudi Arabia; all six are members of the GCC, or Gulf Cooperation Council.

The immediate aftermath was a sudden spike in the cancellation of flights, leading to passengers being stranded in India or abroad, as the connections were no longer available. Seven months later, the war, which was supposed to be a short one, continues, leading to the unsafe passage in the strait of Hormuz, elevated oil prices and claims and counterclaims from both sides. There has been one change, and that has been the availability of airspace. Passengers are connecting at airports in the GCC again, even though some stay out either for uncertainty or company policies.

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Flights have almost returned back to normal

Data shared by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, exclusively for this article, shows that airlines had 2195 weekly departures in February this year, before the conflict began. For the current week, airlines plan to operate 2132 departures, which is 2.9 per cent lower than February, a marginal dip and largely an adjustment of capacity from foreign carriers since the capacity by Available Seat per Mile sees a drop of only 1.3 per cent. In the process, two new airlines have started routes to India, both from Saudi Arabia. Flyadeal started operations in July, while Riyadh Air started flights in August. The ME3 or the Middle Eastern big three, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways have reinstated all their capacity to India. Air Arabia and Oman Air are carriers which are yet to restore their full capacity on routes to India.

The drop is largely on the Indian side, with IndiGo offering 64 lower frequencies now than in February, while Air India has 39 fewer frequencies as compared to February. In the case of Air India, the subsidiary Air India Express has seen an increase of 25 flights, partially offsetting the decrease by parent Air India. However, both IndiGo and Air India group have curtailed capacity network wide to tide over the increased fuel prices. Both groups are getting most of their capacity back in October in preparation for the historic high season along with increases in the winter schedule which begins October 25, 2026 this year. SpiceJet is the other Indian carrier which has shrunk its flights to GCC, but it can be attributed to issues other than geopolitical reasons, specifically its financial position since the airline has shrunk overall across markets.

Overall international capacity from India continues to be below February levels, with October slated to see 4281 weekly departures, compared to 4512 departures in February, a drop of 5.1 per cent. Why is the GCC region so important? 49.5 per cent of all international departures in October would be to one of the airports in the Gulf Council Region. The traffic not only moves to GCC but also beyond GCC. The pressure on that has led to some of the global carriers like Air France, KLM and Lufthansa calling out Asia in general and India in particular as key markets, seeing increased yields in the first quarter of this financial year.

Tail Note

In an environment where the topmost hubs for Indians were under stress, European carriers were making a comeback, why did IndiGo and Air India go slow on the expansion and, in many cases, curtail the existing network? The answer lies in another geopolitical reason: the closure of Pakistani airspace for Indian carriers since April last year after the ghastly Pahalgam attack on civilians. Could the airspace closure with the increased oil prices and sliding rupee be the cost combination that is too much to handle for Indian carriers and maintain profits at the same time.

Any hopes of a resolution on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly were dashed. Will there be a resolution by mid-term elections in the US, and will the Indian carriers find enough passengers who pay the current market cost for breakeven and the airlines make money? The next few months will be tough. After bumper traffic and quarters during the Maha Kumbh, each quarter has had its own share of challenges, unforeseen and expensive. If numbers are looked at, from the Ukraine-Russia war to the West Asia conflict, life has moved on across industries.

Ameya Joshi is an aviation analyst.