‘It’s a world of choke points’: Jaishankar on the new rules of global power

The global balance of power is no longer determined only by the size of a country’s economy or its military strength. Control over financial systems, sanctions and critical resources is also becoming a source of influence, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi on Wednesday.

“It’s not just a world of middle powers. It’s also today a world of choke points,” Jaishankar said during a panel discussion on how countries can navigate an increasingly uncertain international order.

He said that India’s economic scale and growth prospects made the conventional description of a middle power restrictive. He also said countries would increasingly need to define their own interests and policies before negotiating arrangements with one another.

Why economic choke points matter

The concept of economic choke points reflects the uneven nature of global interdependence. Countries may trade extensively with one another, but their dependence is rarely distributed equally. A country that controls an essential resource, technology, financial channel or key stage of production can gain influence that goes beyond the size of its economy.

Jaishankar said the ability to exert pressure through economic and financial systems was becoming a defining feature of the changing global order, extending beyond critical materials such as rare earths.

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“It’s also today a world of choke points, and you know the tendency to weaponise. We tend to think of rare earths as an example, but the fact is even finance is a choke point. I mean sanctions are a choke point. I mean, people are weaponising their grip on finance or on the US dollar,” he said.

Financial infrastructure and sanctions can affect access to international transactions and capital. Concentrated supplies of critical minerals and other essential inputs can expose manufacturers to disruptions or restrictions. Strategic dependence can therefore become a source of pressure during trade disputes or geopolitical tensions.

For businesses, these risks can extend across supply chains, affecting input costs, investment decisions and the availability of components. Governments, meanwhile, face pressure to identify dependencies that could become vulnerabilities during a crisis.

Jaishankar said competition would increasingly be shaped by what countries could offer one another and the agreements they could negotiate to advance their respective interests.

“The point, I think, is we are moving to a world where the competition is going to, to some degree, who has what to bring to the table, and then deals among them saying, you know, you do this, I do this. Let’s develop this together. Let’s trade this for each other,” he said.

‘Middle power’ an inadequate label for India

Jaishankar pushed back against describing India simply as a middle power, arguing that the label does not adequately reflect the country’s population, economic size or future growth potential.

“Would India be a middle power? It’s not a comfortable description because if you are the most populous country in the world, you have a GDP of $4 trillion, give or take, and you have a lot of growth ahead of you, staring you in the face, then the middle power somehow seems to be limiting itself by that definition,” he said.

“More than a middle power, in a way, we are powers in the middle. What would really define a middle power? To use the Prime Minister’s words, the countries who have the power to empower,” Jaishankar said.

He said countries would increasingly have to assess their interests independently, frame their own policies and then work out arrangements with one another.

“The middle powers would now each apply their own mind, stake out their own interests, figure out their own policies, and then reach arrangements with each other,” he said.

“We’ve always sort of learned to be in the rain without an umbrella,” Jaishankar said, describing India’s approach to navigating uncertainty without relying on fixed external guarantees.

Middle powers look to diversify trade

The panel also examined how countries can respond to greater uncertainty in global trade, including protectionist policies and intensifying competition between major economies.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said Canada was working to expand trade beyond the United States.

“The work we will continue to do to double non-U.S. trade over the next 10 years is founded on those agreements that I mentioned,” she said.

The remarks highlight the importance of trade diversification for economies that depend heavily on a limited number of markets. Building new trade relationships can give exporters additional destinations, help attract investment and reduce exposure to policy changes in a major trading partner.

Anand also pointed to the potential for Canada-India ties to expand. Closer economic engagement could create opportunities in areas such as energy, critical minerals and investment, although progress will depend on the details of bilateral negotiations and the wider political relationship.

Sunak says countries must become indispensable

Former UK prime minister Rishi Sunak argued that countries seeking greater influence should focus on becoming indispensable to global supply chains.

He pointed to the specialised roles played by economies in particular industries, including the Netherlands in semiconductor equipment, Germany in optics and lasers, South Korea in memory chips and Japan in chemicals.

“What they can do is make themselves indispensable,” Sunak said.

The argument is that a country can build leverage by developing expertise in products or technologies that other economies cannot easily replace. Such specialisation can attract investment and create strategic importance, even for countries that cannot match the largest economies in overall scale.

But the same concentration can also create vulnerabilities. When a critical product or component has few alternative suppliers, disruptions can affect manufacturers and consumers across several countries.

Sunak also said foreign policy and economic policy had converged, reflecting how trade, technology, investment and supply-chain decisions have become central to national security calculations.