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India’s nominal GDP is projected to reach $4.52 trillion in 2027, surpassing Japan and the UK as the country moves up in global economic rankings, according to the IMF.
India is expected to overtake Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027, with its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) projected to reach $4.52 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook.
Japan, which is projected to remain the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2026, is expected to slip to sixth place next year, behind both India and the United Kingdom.
The IMF estimates Japan’s nominal GDP at $4.34 trillion in 2026, compared with $4.06 trillion for India and $4.27 trillion for the UK.
In 2027, India’s GDP is projected to rise to $4.52 trillion, while the UK’s economy is expected to reach $4.49 trillion. Japan’s nominal GDP is forecast at $4.47 trillion, placing it sixth in the global rankings.
The projected shift marks a significant change in the relative positions of the three economies. India’s rise reflects its expanding economic output, while Japan’s ranking continues to face pressure from a weak yen, an ageing population and subdued economic growth.
Why Japan is slipping in global GDP rankings
Japan’s prolonged economic challenges have affected its position among the world’s largest economies. The weakness of the yen against the US dollar reduces the dollar value of its economic output, influencing its ranking in nominal GDP comparisons.
More from BusinessJapan was overtaken by Germany in 2023, losing its position as the world’s third-largest economy after holding that rank for around a decade.
The country continues to face demographic headwinds as its population ages and declines, increasing the importance of boosting investment and productivity to support long-term growth.
IMF flags uneven global growth
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, projects global economic growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.
The report also forecasts global inflation at 4.7 per cent in 2026, driven by higher energy and food prices.
The IMF has cautioned that economic prospects remain uneven across countries, with investment in artificial intelligence and favourable terms of trade contributing to widening differences in growth performance.
For India, the projected rise to fourth place in 2027 would mark another milestone in its growing role in the global economy. However, GDP rankings based on nominal output also reflect currency movements and price changes, and do not directly measure living standards or income per person.
