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President Donald Trump seems anxious about the upcoming US midterm elections – voting is on November 3. So much so that he confused Brazil with India in a recent social media post when comparing the vote-counting process, an issue that has seen intense debate in the current American political zeitgeist. Since Trump’s loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election, which the former has called “rigged,” he has repeated the claim more than 100 times publicly and has taken the fight to the US Supreme Court. At the heart of the issue is the vote-by-mail provision that Trump has railed against.
At least four developments have riled up Trump: Early and mail voting are already underway in more than 40 states (almost one-third of American voters vote by mail); Trump is reeling under one of the lowest approval ratings on the back of rising energy prices and a new “forever war” in Iran; there is a sense that the Democrats may just edge out the Republicans in both the House and the Senate, and finally, the Supreme Court has just begun a new term with the anticipation that it may take up new cases on election issues like gun control, immigration and religious issues.
In March 2026, Trump issued an Executive Order that sought to limit how Americans could vote, particularly through mail, and vowed to do away with voting machines. Consequently, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s attempts to restrict mail ballots. More than 23 states came together to appeal against Trump’s Executive Order, which now remains blocked by a nationwide injunction and will almost certainly not apply this November.
Then, there is the question of nationwide popularity. Trump’s average approval rating fell to 38 per cent in late September, the lowest in his second term. A little over 35 per cent of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats average 52 per cent against 43 per cent for Republicans, the widest margin since Trump returned to office. If the numbers and the sentiment do translate into votes, Democrats may likely win. To Trump’s advantage, however, the actual voting may vary state-wise, altering some of these expectations.
For the Democrats, the historical record may be more favourable. Since the 1950s, the president’s party has lost an average of more than 25 House seats in midterm elections, with losses plummeting further when the presidential approval rating is below 50 per cent. In his first term, Trump himself lost 40 House seats in 2018; Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010 and Bill Clinton 54 in 1994. Perhaps the exceptions are 1998 and 2002, which are attributed to the popularity of a president or an era-defining post-9/11 rallying of sentiments. Trump, on the contrary, has been sucked into a war abroad and is struggling to keep price rises at home under control.
The economy, along with the cost of living, lies at the heart of the political contestations. Contrary to Trump’s expectations, the prolonged war in Iran has gradually crept into domestic prices. While rising petrol prices (gas) and electricity bills are affecting households, a spike in diesel prices is impacting the truckers’ supply chain and farming, adding pressure on Republicans.
Republicans hold a narrow House majority, and Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to win it – making the House win a stronger possibility than the Senate. What has complicated the picture is a gerrymandering war between the two parties. The process, which can happen once every decade, could give the Republicans an edge with new maps in Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, among others, which could yield Republicans around 16 seats on paper, against roughly six for Democrats, mostly from California. What may prove decisive in the end is how many Republican-held seats turn Democrat, if any. In the Senate, the current Republican lead may prove to be a steeper climb for the Democrats. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four for an outright majority, along with the two independents who caucus with the latter.
Although international issues tend to weigh less in midterms, given the prolonged nature and continued US commitments to the Middle East, this November could be different. On October 1, Trump ordered a third carrier strike group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and another 10,000 troops to the region. The carrier is not expected to arrive until late November, after the polls have closed, but the political signalling has been dire. The deployment follows the virtual collapse of efforts to secure a workable ceasefire or any modus vivendi with Tehran. The war has also spread beyond Iran with the Houthis renewing missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, drawing Riyadh’s ongoing response.
China adds a layer of contradiction in US politics. As Trump has sought “constructive strategic stability” with China, extending their trade truce to January 2027, many see the stability as structurally incongruent. For the soyabean farm-state Republicans in Iowa and Nebraska, the truce with China is a lifeline, but for China hawks, it looks like accommodation.
For America’s partners, including India, the more consequential question is not who wins in November but what follows.
The writer is Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at ORF
