Media365
Global shipping costs have climbed to $4,000–$4,500 in October from $2,000–$2,500 in February 2026, even as India’s container-based export-import trade grew 23 per cent year-on-year in September.
Global container freight rates have surged 130 per cent since February 2026 amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns over shipping costs and their potential implications for international trade, according to a report by brokerage firm Jefferies.
Freight rates, which had eased through much of 2025 and early 2026 as the demand-supply balance improved, have rebounded sharply in recent months. The increase has brought shipping costs back into focus for businesses dependent on international cargo movement.
According to Jefferies, global container freight rates rose from around $2,000–$2,500 in February to approximately $4,000–$4,500 in October 2026.
The report identified the potential return of shipping lines to the Suez Canal, despite continuing tensions in West Asia, as a key factor to monitor. Changes in shipping routes could influence freight costs and affect the movement of goods across major global trade corridors.
The surge in freight rates comes as India’s container-based export-import trade continues to expand. The value of India’s containerisable trade increased 23 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, supported by a 22 per cent rise in exports and a 23 per cent increase in imports, according to Jefferies.
Exports to the United States registered strong growth, rising 48 per cent year-on-year during the month. However, shipments to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia declined by 12–15 per cent year-on-year, highlighting divergent trends across India’s key trading partners.
More from BusinessThe report’s figures indicate that India’s trade flows remained strong in September despite the increase in global shipping costs. However, the data do not establish whether higher freight rates have already affected export-import growth.
Major port volumes rise 13%
Port traffic data showed mixed trends across India. Cargo volumes at major ports increased 13 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, while volumes at non-major ports declined 1 per cent.
Among non-major ports, volumes at Gujarat ports grew 3 per cent year-on-year, while ports in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu recorded growth of 6–7 per cent.
In contrast, major and non-major ports on India’s eastern coast witnessed a sharp decline in volumes during the month, the report said.
Suez Canal route remains a key monitorable
The potential resumption of shipping through the Suez Canal remains an important variable for global freight markets as geopolitical tensions continue to affect maritime trade routes.
A return to the canal could alter shipping routes and transit times, with implications for freight rates and cargo movement. However, the direction and extent of any impact will depend on developments in the Middle East and decisions taken by shipping companies.
The latest increase in freight rates underscores the sensitivity of global supply chains to geopolitical disruptions, even as international trade volumes continue to grow.
