From China to India to Turkey, Canada is redrawing its trade map. What is at stake?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Turkey on Thursday is the latest step in a broader effort to diversify the country’s trade relationships, expand export markets and strengthen economic resilience amid tensions with the United States.

From a trade deal with China to negotiations for a comprehensive economic agreement with India and closer cooperation with Turkey, Ottawa is seeking new opportunities for Canadian businesses in energy, agriculture, defence, technology and critical minerals.

The push comes as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs disrupt established trade relationships and raise concerns about jobs and investment in Canadian industries. Yet the government insists that diversification is not about abandoning the US market.

Speaking at the Toronto Global Forum on Wednesday, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said the strategy was intended to give Canadian businesses more options rather than replace their largest trading partner.

Why Carney is turning to China, India and Turkey

Carney travelled to Beijing in January to reset strained relations with China, securing an agreement that reduced tariffs on Canadian canola and Chinese electric vehicles.

China offers a substantial market for Canadian agricultural products and other exports. However, deeper economic engagement also requires Ottawa to manage concerns about national security and allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian federal elections.

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India presents a different opportunity. Canada is working towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement by the end of 2026, with the two countries aiming to increase bilateral trade.

Energy, critical minerals, agriculture, aerospace and services are among the areas with potential for expanded cooperation. India needs additional energy supplies to support economic growth, while Canadian companies are looking for opportunities in one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing major economies.

The negotiations gained momentum during a Canadian trade mission to India in October, led by Sidhu, which included nearly 300 business delegates. The scale of the mission reflects the effort to turn improving diplomatic relations into commercial opportunities.

Turkey offers another set of possibilities. Carney is scheduled to meet President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara before meeting Turkish business leaders in Istanbul.

The two countries are expected to sign a declaration to deepen cooperation in areas including trade, energy, defence and security. The proposed framework is expected to establish committees to develop action plans, while discussions will also cover investment and closer business ties.

Bilateral merchandise trade stood at C$4.34 billion in 2025, less than 0.3 per cent of Canada’s total merchandise trade. However, trade has increased by nearly 50 per cent over five years, providing a base for further expansion.

What can Turkey offer Canada?

Energy and defence could give the relationship greater commercial significance beyond the immediate diplomatic engagement.

Turkey is exploring options for its second and third nuclear power plants. Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRealis, which owns CANDU nuclear reactor technology, has held discussions with Ankara alongside South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation and China’s State Power Investment Corporation.

A working group is expected to examine the feasibility of a Canadian CANDU bid for a planned nuclear plant on Turkey’s Black Sea coast. The discussions could create opportunities for Canadian engineering and nuclear technology, although a concrete project would require further negotiations and investment decisions.

Energy discussions could also cover Canadian liquefied natural gas supplies and critical minerals. These are areas in which Ottawa is seeking to expand exports and develop new international supply relationships.

Defence is another potential avenue. Discussions are expected to cover drones and naval cooperation. Canada removed weapons-export controls on Turkey in 2024, including restrictions affecting optical technology used in Turkish drones.

However, the visit should not be mistaken for an immediate commercial breakthrough. Turkey is also talking to other international companies about its nuclear projects, while defence and energy investments typically require lengthy negotiations, financing and regulatory approvals.

Canada is also spending billions to protect its industries

The diversification push is being accompanied by measures to strengthen Canadian industries facing pressure from US tariffs.

On Wednesday, Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a package of investments and measures worth about C$8.7 billion to support steelmakers, automakers and critical mineral development.

Will the trade push survive political change?

At the Toronto Global Forum, former Liberal cabinet minister Scott Brison asked Sidhu whether the diversification drive would continue if political leadership changed in Ottawa or Washington. He also raised the question of whether partners such as China would trust Canada’s commitment to long-term economic relationships.

The concern goes beyond the number of agreements signed. Businesses make investment decisions based on predictable rules, market access and the expectation that commercial arrangements will endure. A trade strategy that depends heavily on the priorities of one government could struggle to attract long-term commitments.

Canada is pursuing agreements with India, Turkey, the Philippines and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, alongside recent trade arrangements with Indonesia, Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates. Negotiations with the Philippines and ASEAN were reported to be more than 90 per cent complete in September, with the government seeking progress towards finalisation.

The expanding network could give Canadian exporters more destinations for their products and reduce the risks of relying on a single buyer. But signing agreements is only the first step. Businesses must use them, supply chains must adapt and new markets must generate enough demand to justify the investment.

For India, the opportunity lies in a more reliable supply of energy, minerals and other commodities, alongside greater access to Canadian capital, technology and expertise. For Canada, the potential lies in reaching a large consumer market and diversifying exports beyond its traditional North American customer base.

The US, meanwhile, remains deeply integrated with Canada’s manufacturing, energy and agricultural industries. Geographic proximity, established supply chains and existing commercial relationships mean that replacing this market would be difficult and costly.