Brexit at a crossroads: Why Britain could move closer to the EU again

Britain’s relationship with the European Union is back at a critical juncture, with Prime Minister Andy Burnham opening the door to a more ambitious partnership with the bloc, including the possibility of rejoining it in the future.

The debate has gained momentum as public opinion shifts towards closer European integration and questions grow over whether Brexit has delivered the economic benefits promised by its supporters.

A poll conducted by the Messina Group, surveying 11,461 people between September 12 and 24, found that 49 per cent supported the UK rejoining the EU, compared with 28.5 per cent who opposed the move. Another 52.4 per cent of respondents said Britain had been wrong to leave the bloc, while 54.9 per cent described Brexit as a failure.

The findings could strengthen calls within the Labour government to reconsider Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe. However, the prospect of reopening the Brexit debate also carries political risks, particularly in constituencies that voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum.

Why is Britain reconsidering Brexit?

Burnham has argued that the UK’s current relationship with the EU is not delivering satisfactory results and that the country needs to examine its options for the next decade.

At the Labour Party conference on September 29, he said Brexit had “done more harm than good” and called for a clearer long-term direction in relations with Britain’s largest trading market.

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The prime minister has indicated that the government will use a proposed UK-EU summit later this year to outline possible paths forward. These could range from maintaining the existing arrangement while reducing trade barriers to joining the EU customs union, participating in the single market or pursuing full membership.

Burnham has stopped short of committing to an immediate return to the EU. However, when asked whether a future Labour election manifesto could include a new referendum on EU membership, he said such an outcome was possible.

The shift marks a significant development in the political debate over Brexit, which has shaped British politics and economic policy for more than a decade.

What do voters want?

The Messina Group poll suggests that support for closer ties with Europe extends beyond full EU membership.

While 49 per cent backed rejoining the bloc, 48.2 per cent supported retaining the existing relationship while cutting trade barriers. A customs union received support from 47.1 per cent of respondents, while joining the single market and associate membership attracted support from 45.1 per cent and 45.5 per cent, respectively.

By contrast, only 27.9 per cent supported moving Britain further away from the EU.

The findings also suggest that the economic relationship with Europe remains a priority. More than two-thirds of respondents said trade with the EU was more important than trade with the United States or China if Britain had to choose between them.

However, questions of sovereignty, immigration and political control continue to complicate the debate. A renewed push towards EU membership could therefore unite voters who favour closer economic integration while reigniting divisions over the consequences of Brexit.

Economic concerns and the political stakes

The debate comes amid continued scrutiny of Brexit’s long-term economic consequences. The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility has previously estimated that Brexit will leave long-run productivity around 4 per cent lower than it would have been if Britain had remained in the EU.

Supporters of closer integration argue that reducing trade barriers and improving access to European markets could support investment, economic growth and business confidence.

A shift towards rejoining the EU, however, would involve difficult negotiations and potentially significant political trade-offs. Full membership could require Britain to accept EU rules and obligations, with the precise terms depending on negotiations with member states.

The issue also presents an electoral calculation for Labour. The Messina Group research suggested that a more pro-European position could increase Labour’s vote share by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points under different scenarios involving closer ties.

Yet some Labour lawmakers remain wary of reviving the divisions that defined the 2016 referendum. Opposition parties, including the Conservatives and Reform UK, have criticised the government’s approach, accusing it of seeking to reverse Brexit without a fresh mandate.

Will Britain rejoin the European Union?

For now, a return to EU membership remains a possibility rather than an established government policy. The government’s immediate focus is on exploring options for a long-term relationship with Europe and advancing cooperation on trade, security and other areas of mutual interest.

The European response has been broadly receptive to the prospect of closer ties. French President Emmanuel Macron has said a British return would be welcome, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has also expressed support.

Nevertheless, rejoining the bloc would require a formal application and unanimous approval from EU member states, followed by negotiations over the terms of membership and ratification procedures.

Britain is therefore unlikely to resolve the question quickly. But with public opinion shifting, economic concerns persisting and political parties reassessing their positions, Brexit is once again becoming a defining question for the country’s future.