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Iran is presenting the US-Iran ceasefire agreement as a strategic success, with state media celebrating what it called the “magnificent defeat” of Washington. But behind Tehran’s confident messaging lies a far more complicated reality: the Islamic Republic has gained breathing space, but faces deep economic damage, political uncertainty and difficult negotiations over its nuclear programme.
The interim agreement has allowed Iran to move quickly to revive oil exports after months of restrictions. With the United States lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, Tehran has begun sending crude shipments abroad, seeking to convert the diplomatic breakthrough into badly needed economic relief.
According to shipping data, Iranian oil exports have surged since the deal. Nearly 18 million barrels of crude have reportedly been exported in recent days, worth around $1.44 billion. More shipments could follow from Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, potentially increasing supply in global markets and putting further pressure on crude prices.
For years, sanctions forced Iran to rely on a “shadow fleet” and sell oil primarily to limited buyers, often at discounted prices. The new arrangement could allow Tehran to access more markets and secure better revenues.
However, analysts warm that the deal represents survival rather than a decisive victory. “It’s too much to say that Iran has emerged a victor, but it could have been much worse,” Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute told AP. “I think that the real victory for Iran was … survival.”
Economic relief meets domestic crisis
While Tehran highlights its ability to withstand military pressure, the war has deepened existing economic problems.
Iran’s economy was already struggling under years of sanctions, inflation and mismanagement before the conflict. The Iranian rial, which traded at around 32,000 to the US dollar during the 2015 nuclear agreement, has fallen dramatically and now stands above 1.5 million per dollar.
The economic collapse has affected ordinary citizens, with many Iranians reporting rising prices for essential goods and worsening living conditions after the lifting of an internet shutdown.
“The conflict is estimated to have cost at least one million Iranian jobs, with 20% of workforce losses tied to the state-imposed internet shutdown,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told AP.
She added that ordinary Iranians, already burdened by sanctions, corruption and economic mismanagement, have faced further pressure from hyperinflation that has weakened the national currency.
The economic strain contributed to nationwide protests earlier this year, posing one of the biggest domestic challenges to Iran’s leadership in recent years.
The country is also navigating a leadership transition after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the conflict. His successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has backed the interim agreement while making clear that negotiations with Washington would not mean accepting US demands.
Nuclear talks remain the biggest test
The most difficult phase of the agreement may now lie ahead: negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Under the deal, Tehran has agreed to take steps including diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. In exchange, Iran expects sanctions relief and economic benefits. But Washington continues to push for broader restrictions, including demands that Iran completely halt enrichment — a longstanding red line for Tehran.
The compromise has already triggered criticism from Iranian hard-liners. Raja News, aligned with conservative factions, accused the government of surrendering key strategic advantages by agreeing to nuclear concessions.
Iran also appears to have avoided immediate negotiations over two issues strongly opposed by the US and Israel: its missile programme and support for regional groups such as Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, fighting in Lebanon has emerged as another threat to the fragile agreement. Israel has vowed to continue operations against Hezbollah until it believes the group no longer poses a threat, while Hezbollah has demanded an Israeli withdrawal before fully ending hostilities.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said ending the Lebanon conflict was essential to achieving a broader regional settlement, warning that the end of the war must include an end to what Tehran describes as occupation.
As Iran seeks to transform battlefield survival into diplomatic gains, its next challenge will be balancing economic recovery, domestic expectations and international pressure. The ceasefire may have paused the confrontation with Washington, but the hardest negotiations are still ahead.
With inputs from agencies
