Monsoon delayed, Centre reviews water availability and preparedness for states for El Nino impact – Firstpost

With the southwest monsoon showing signs of delay and the possibility of an El Nino event looming over the season, the Centre has begun a nationwide review of water availability, crop planning and state-level preparedness to cushion the impact on agriculture and food security.

Union Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday chaired a high-level meeting in New Delhi to assess the progress of monsoon preparations, water resources, seed availability, contingency plans and the readiness of states to tackle any rainfall shortfall during the crucial kharif sowing season.

The review comes amid growing concerns over the development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a weather phenomenon that has historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India and heightened risks for agriculture.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the 2026 southwest monsoon is likely to remain below normal, with seasonal rainfall estimated at around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average. The weather agency has also indicated that El Nino conditions may emerge during the monsoon season.

Addressing the meeting, Chouhan said there was no need for panic but stressed the importance of advance planning and coordinated action between the Centre and states to safeguard farmers’ interests.

“The government is focusing on seeds, moisture conservation, water management and alternative crop planning,” the minister said, directing officials to intensify monitoring in districts that are vulnerable to low rainfall and prolonged dry spells.

WMO warns of El Nino development

The Centre’s review coincides with a warning from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that
El Nino conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with a 90 per cent probability of the climate pattern emerging in the coming months.

The UN weather agency said unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are driving the phenomenon, which could trigger extreme weather events globally, including heatwaves, droughts, floods and unusual rainfall patterns.

WMO has forecast above-average temperatures across much of the world between June and August and urged governments to prepare for potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, livelihoods and public health.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the development as an “urgent warning” and said El Niño conditions could intensify the effects of global warming.

Risks for India’s monsoon-dependent economy

Experts warn that a developing El Nino could significantly raise the probability of a deficient monsoon in India, where nearly half of agricultural land remains dependent on rainfall.

A weaker monsoon could affect production of key kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, potentially pushing up food prices and complicating inflation management. Agriculture continues to support millions of livelihoods and remains a critical pillar of rural demand.

Recognising these risks, the Centre has instructed states to strengthen communication channels with farmers through mobile advisories, weather alerts and crop-specific guidance. The Agriculture Ministry has also directed officials to prepare advance plans for pest and disease management, which can intensify under changing weather conditions.

The government said it would continue to review preparedness levels across states and provide additional support wherever required, with the objective of ensuring that farming activity remains largely unaffected despite the uncertainties surrounding the monsoon season.