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Kotak Institutional Equities has flagged downside risks to its $88 billion forecast for India’s gold imports in FY27 after official monthly imports declined sharply from May, although festive demand could support a recovery.
Kotak Institutional Equities sees downside risks to its forecast of $88 billion in gold imports for India in FY2027, citing a sharp decline in official monthly imports in the first five months of the financial year.
“We assume US$88 billion of gold imports in FY2027E; downside risks exist based on 5MFY27 trends, although demand will pick up over the forthcoming festive season,” Kotak said in a strategy report dated September 23, according to ANI.
The broking’s assessment comes as India’s gold import trend has weakened after May, raising questions over whether the country will reach the level projected for the full financial year.
However, Kotak expects demand to strengthen during the upcoming festive season, which could provide support to gold imports in the coming months. India’s festive period traditionally sees stronger demand for gold jewellery and other forms of the precious metal.
The divergence between the current import trend and the full-year forecast means the $88 billion estimate faces downside risks, according to the brokerage.
Gold imports are an important component of India’s merchandise trade and can have implications for the country’s trade balance and external accounts. A sustained increase in gold imports can also affect the overall import bill, particularly when international gold prices are elevated.
More from BusinessKotak’s forecast will therefore depend partly on how domestic demand evolves through the festive period and whether the recent weakness in monthly imports persists.
The brokerage has not ruled out a recovery in demand, but its assessment indicates that the import trajectory during the first five months of FY27 has fallen short of what would be needed to comfortably support its existing full-year estimate.
