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AI giant’s Nasdaq debut could attract $250 million in net retail buying, nearly double the record set by SpaceX, as pre-IPO futures trading signals unprecedented investor appetite.
Anthropic’s upcoming initial public offering (IPO) could trigger one of the biggest waves of retail investor buying in market history, potentially surpassing the record set by SpaceX, according to Vanda Research.
The research firm expects Anthropic’s market debut to attract around $250 million in net retail buying, nearly twice the $118 million recorded during SpaceX’s IPO. The estimate is based on Vanda’s analysis of retail investor activity on listing days and trading volumes in pre-IPO perpetual futures.
“Judging by pre-IPO perp trading, Anthropic is shaping up to be a record retail IPO,” Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research, said in a note on Wednesday.
Why is Anthropic attracting investor interest?
The growing interest in Anthropic reflects the enormous investor appetite for artificial intelligence companies and businesses positioned to benefit from the rapid expansion of the AI industry.
Pre-IPO perpetual futures are derivative contracts traded on platforms such as Hyperliquid and Coinbase. They allow traders to speculate on the valuations of privately held companies without directly owning their shares. These contracts are priced with reference to a company’s latest disclosed pre-IPO valuation, although they have no direct connection to the underlying shares.
More from BusinessTrading activity in these contracts can offer an indication of investor sentiment ahead of a company’s stock market debut. Vanda has used this activity, alongside historical retail buying patterns during IPOs, to estimate the potential demand for Anthropic shares.
The research firm said only six stocks have recorded more than $250 million in single-day retail buying since 2024, highlighting how unusual the projected demand for Anthropic could be.
“Anthropic next week could draw the kind of retail buying that we’ve rarely seen in our data,” Vanda Research said.
Anthropic targets $1.4 trillion valuation
Anthropic is targeting a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion in its IPO, with its shares expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on November 19.
The proposed valuation would place the artificial intelligence company among the world’s most valuable businesses, reflecting expectations around the commercial potential of generative AI and growing demand for advanced AI models.
The anticipated listing also comes at a time when investors are increasingly looking for opportunities to gain exposure to the AI boom through public markets.
If Vanda’s projections materialise, Anthropic could set a new benchmark for retail investor participation in a technology IPO, comfortably surpassing SpaceX’s reported $118 million record.
However, the projected $250 million represents an estimate of potential net retail buying, not a confirmed figure or guaranteed outcome for the listing.
