Moscow expects lower natural gas production and LNG exports than previously forecast, as the Ukraine war reshapes its energy trade with the West and Europe prepares to end Russian gas purchases.
Russia has cut its forecasts for natural gas production and exports in 2026, as the fallout from the Ukraine war continues to reshape its energy trade with the West and Europe moves closer to ending its remaining purchases of Russian gas.
According to a draft government forecast seen by Reuters, Russia is now expected to produce 683.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas this year, down 5.3 bcm from the projection made in May. The revised estimate, however, remains above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025.
The forecasts are being prepared as part of an update to Russia’s federal budget projections through 2029 and highlight the growing impact of Moscow’s deteriorating economic and political ties with Europe.
Russia’s seaborne liquefied natural gas exports are expected to reach 35 million metric tonnes in 2026, up from 30.3 million tonnes last year. But the latest estimate is 5.3 million tonnes below the government’s earlier forecast, suggesting that the expansion of Russia’s LNG industry could be slower than previously anticipated.
The draft forecast still expects Russian LNG exports to increase in the coming years, although at a slower pace than previously projected. The revisions come as Russia attempts to redirect energy exports towards markets in Asia and elsewhere after losing much of its traditional European market.
More from BusinessRussia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe have fallen dramatically since the start of the Ukraine war. Russian gas exports to Europe fell 44 per cent last year to just 18 bcm, according to Reuters calculations, after the closure of the Ukrainian transit route. That was the lowest level since the mid-1970s.
The contrast with the pre-war period is stark. Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at around 180 bcm a year in 2018-2019, making the continent Russia’s most important gas market.
The European Union is now preparing to eliminate its remaining purchases of Russian gas, further reducing the prospects of a return to pre-war trade levels.
Despite the collapse in trade, the Kremlin has continued to argue that Europe is hurting itself by purchasing gas at higher prices on the spot market rather than buying Russian supplies.
Moscow has also said it remains ready to resume gas deliveries to Europe, including through the Nord Stream pipelines. One leg of the undersea system remains intact after explosions damaged the pipelines in September 2022.
The latest production and export forecasts nevertheless point to a substantially altered Russian gas market, with Moscow increasingly dependent on LNG and non-European buyers to compensate for the loss of its once-dominant European market.
