Maharashtra drought, weak monsoon raise rabi crop concerns

Maharashtra has declared drought in nearly three-fourths of its tehsils, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis stating that the situation could be worse than the great famine of 1972. But it isn’t just Maharashtra. India overall has reported rainfall at 11.9 per cent below the historical average during the current southwest monsoon season from June 1 to September 27. Also, 23 of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded cumulative deficits in excess of 10 per cent. The southern states, Maharashtra’s Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch and the Northeast are the worst-hit. On the whole, rainfall was markedly deficient in June and August, and has been concentrated in a few regions: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. That makes for a rather skewed temporal and spatial distribution.

El Niño has entered a strong phase. Global climate models point to its becoming “very strong” in October through January-February, before gradually receding into a moderate-to-weak event towards April-May. El Niño’s impact on the monsoon has been felt since August. There will be some effect of that on the kharif yields, even if their acreage hasn’t fallen much. The real brunt will be borne by the crops grown during the upcoming rabi (winter-spring) season. Deficit monsoon rains may leave little water in wells, ponds, reservoirs or underground aquifers. That, plus the prospect of a relatively warm and short winter (El Niño is known to suppress rainfall as well as raise temperatures), could translate into a poor rabi harvest on top of a not-so-great kharif.

The Fadnavis administration has done well to activate the Drought Management Code, triggering the undertaking of crop loss assessment and concessions such as waiver of land revenue and restructuring or pausing recovery of agricultural loans by farmers in the affected areas. Other states must follow suit. The efficacy of the Centre’s flagship Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana and VB-G Ram G schemes — in terms of expeditious indemnity claim payouts to farmers and the taking up of rural relief works — may also well be tested. There is equal need for supply-side management in anticipation of shortfalls. The Narendra Modi government, last week, cut import duties on crude palm and soyabean oil from 16.5 to 11 per cent and on sunflower oil to 5.5 per cent. It has already allowed imports of arhar and urad at nil duty. Imports should be made duty-free for all other pulses, too: Yellow peas, chana and masoor.