India nearly doubled its proposed coal mining capacity to 638 mtpa in 2025 from 329 mtpa a year earlier, driving a sharp increase in the global coal project pipeline even as coal demand growth slows and renewable energy expands
India nearly doubled its proposed coal mine capacity in 2025, contributing to a broader expansion in the global pipeline of planned coal mining projects, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data.
India’s proposed coal mine capacity rose to 638 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2025 from 329 mtpa in 2024, an increase of about 94 per cent. Globally, the pipeline of proposed coal mining capacity increased to 2,521 mtpa, up around 11 per cent year-on-year.
GEM’s latest coal mine research identifies 837 coal mine proposals worldwide, reflecting a nearly 12 per cent increase from 2024. The data is drawn from GEM’s Global Coal Mine Tracker, which monitors coal projects at all stages, including proposed, permitted, under construction, and operating mines.
India drives global pipeline expansion
India accounted for the largest share of the global increase in proposed coal mining capacity. The expansion reflects continued efforts to boost domestic coal production to meet rising electricity demand, support industrial growth, and reduce import dependence.
Most of the proposed capacity is concentrated in coal-rich states such as Jharkhand and Odisha, which together host a significant share of India’s coal reserves and mining infrastructure.
Despite rapid growth in renewable energy deployment, coal remains central to India’s electricity system. The country continues to rely heavily on coal-fired generation to meet baseload demand and ensure grid stability.
More from BusinessGlobal coal system: slowing demand, rising production
Global coal demand growth is slowing year over year, but production remains at record highs. At the same time, the scale of existing and planned coal projects continues to pose challenges for global climate targets.
Coal mining remains a foundational component of global industry and energy production. However, its continued expansion creates significant tensions for a sustainable energy transition, particularly as coal power plants are gradually retired in many regions while mining activity persists.
The coal mining sector is also lagging behind the power sector in terms of phaseout planning. This is partly due to an expanding metallurgical coal market, sustained demand in emerging economies, and elevated energy prices following geopolitical disruptions linked to the wars in Ukraine and Iran. In addition, many countries are increasingly prioritising energy security and domestic supply, reinforcing reliance on local coal resources.
Global pipeline remains large
GEM data shows that while new mine capacity openings continue to decline — having dropped by more than 50 per cent since 2024 — the global pipeline remains substantial.
Around 700 mtpa of coal mining capacity is already under construction, locking in decades of future production. This raises concerns about potential stranded assets as global energy systems shift toward lower-carbon sources.
Global development is heavily concentrated in a small group of countries. China, India, Australia, Russia, and South Africa account for more than 90 per cent of all proposed coal capacity. China alone represents 1,329 mtpa, more than the rest of the world combined.
Thermal coal for power generation still dominates expansion plans, accounting for roughly 70 per cent of proposed capacity. However, metallurgical coal used in steelmaking is becoming increasingly important, particularly as deeper underground mining operations raise methane intensity and environmental impacts.
Demand outlook and energy transition
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects India to remain a key driver of global coal demand growth through 2030. In its Coal 2025 report, the agency projects India’s coal demand will grow at an average rate of around 3 per cent per year, adding more than 200 million tonnes of additional demand by 2030.
India’s electricity demand is also expected to expand rapidly, with the IEA forecasting average annual growth of about 6.4 per cent through 2030. Renewables are expected to supply a large share of incremental demand, but coal is still projected to meet a significant portion of the remaining increase.
Globally, the IEA expects coal demand to plateau in the mid-2020s and gradually decline by 2030, as renewable energy, nuclear power, and natural gas expand their share of electricity generation. Its outlook projects global coal consumption in 2030 to be about 3 per cent lower than 2025 levels.
India’s balancing act
For India, the energy transition is expected to be more gradual due to strong electricity demand growth and the continued importance of coal in both power generation and industrial use.
This creates a structural tension between long-term decarbonisation trends and near-term energy security priorities. While India is rapidly expanding renewable capacity, coal remains central to ensuring reliable and affordable electricity supply.
As a result, the scale of India’s proposed coal mining pipeline reflects a strategy focused on meeting projected demand growth and ensuring supply security, even as global energy agencies anticipate a plateau and eventual decline in coal consumption worldwide.
However, the large gap between proposed capacity and long-term demand projections raises the risk of overcapacity. If renewable energy deployment accelerates faster than expected or coal demand growth slows in the latter half of the decade, parts of the global coal mining pipeline could face significant financial and operational stress.
(With inputs from agencies.)
