Media365
The administration of Donald Trump delivered its strongest warning yet to Nato allies, telling member countries to rapidly increase defence spending or face consequences ranging from reduced US military cooperation to a possible reassessment of America’s troop presence in Europe.
The message comes ahead of a key Nato summit in Ankara, where alliance leaders are expected to endorse a new defence spending target of 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. While most members have backed the long-term goal, the US says many countries are moving too slowly and need to accelerate their plans immediately.
The warning underscores a broader shift in US policy under Trump, who has long argued that European allies rely too heavily on American taxpayers for their security while failing to invest adequately in their own militaries.
Why is Trump pushing Nato allies?
Trump has repeatedly criticised Nato members for not spending enough on defence, arguing that the imbalance weakens the alliance and places an unfair financial burden on the United States.
Speaking ahead of the summit, US Ambassador to Nato Matt Whitaker said some countries were leading by example while many others continued to lag behind.
“Some allies are doing more than others. Poland, the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries lead the way,” Whitaker said.
“But many others are lagging behind, and President Trump expects all allies to step up immediately, and not only get on a sustainable path to the 5 per cent but get to 5 per cent as soon as possible.”
What could the consequences be?
Although the Trump administration has not announced formal penalties, officials have outlined several areas where countries failing to meet defence commitments could find themselves at a disadvantage.
One possibility is reduced access to US military hardware. Countries that invest more in defence could receive priority when purchasing American-made weapons, including advanced missile systems, fighter aircraft and other military equipment.
Another consequence could involve political access. Officials indicated that countries contributing more to Nato’s defence goals may receive greater engagement with the White House and senior US officials.
Perhaps the most significant development is a review launched by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth into America’s military posture in Europe. The six-month assessment will examine troop deployments and readiness across the continent, raising the possibility that forces could eventually be reduced in countries that consistently fail to meet spending expectations.
Why is the 5 per cent target significant?
For decades, Nato encouraged members to spend at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence — a benchmark many allies struggled to meet.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 transformed Europe’s security landscape, prompting governments to increase military budgets and rebuild armed forces after years of underinvestment.
The proposed 5 per cent target represents Nato’s most ambitious defence spending goal since the Cold War. It reflects concerns over Russia’s military capabilities as well as growing uncertainty about future US security guarantees.
While the new target is intended to be achieved by 2035, Washington wants allies to move much faster rather than waiting until the deadline approaches.
Which countries are spending the most?
Countries closest to Russia have increased defence budgets the fastest.
Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland now rank among Nato’s biggest defence spenders as a share of GDP. The Nordic countries have also sharply expanded military investment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Many larger Western European economies, however, remain well below the proposed 5 per cent level despite announcing recent increases.
Where does Britain stand?
The warning places renewed pressure on the government of Keir Starmer.
Starmer recently announced an additional £15 billion for defence, taking Britain’s military spending to around 2.7 per cent of GDP by 2029.
While the increase represents one of the UK’s largest defence funding boosts in recent years, it remains significantly below Nato’s proposed long-term target.
Britain has nevertheless sought to demonstrate its commitment to the alliance by deploying HMS Prince of Wales, its flagship aircraft carrier, to the High North as part of NATO operations aimed at deterring Russia in the Arctic region.
What does it mean for Nato?
The debate over defence spending has become one of the defining issues facing Nato.
Trump has previously questioned whether the United States should continue providing security guarantees to allies that fail to spend adequately on their own defence. His remarks earlier this year fuelled concerns about Washington’s commitment to Article 5 — the alliance’s collective defence clause, under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
Despite those concerns, diplomats expect Nato leaders meeting in Ankara to reaffirm an “ironclad commitment” to Article 5, signalling that collective defence remains at the heart of the alliance.
Ukraine remains central
The summit is also expected to focus heavily on Ukraine.
Trump is scheduled to meet Volodymyr Zelensky during the gathering to discuss prospects for ending the war with Russia.
Nato leaders are expected to approve a €70 billion military support package for Ukraine in 2026 while committing to maintain similar levels of assistance the following year.
For the alliance, the twin challenges are clear: ensuring Europe contributes more to its own defence while maintaining unity against Russia at a time of continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
