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This volume is projected to represent about 1 per cent of China’s total new car sales in 2026, as the expanding adoption of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is poised to stimulate the world’s largest automotive and electric vehicle (EV) market amid waning demand.
“Daiwa anticipates that more carmakers with level 3 [L3] autonomous driving capability will receive manufacturing licences,” the Japanese investment bank said in a research note last week. “The penetration rate for L3 cars in China is expected to hit 1 per cent in 2026.”
Gao Shen, an independent analyst in Shanghai, said Daiwa’s estimate was the lower side as Chinese carmakers were investing heavily in L3 capabilities.
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“As many as 1 million L3 cars, mainly EVs, would be assembled in China next year,” he added. “Leading carmakers have already said they were prepared to launch safer and more advanced L3 vehicles.”
