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Scientists are taking serious precautions against asteroid 2024 YR4, which could collide with the Moon in 2032. Instead of the conventional approach of deflecting the asteroid, experts are considering a more aggressive solution: blowing it up.
Initially flagged as a potential threat to Earth, 2024 YR4—measuring about 60 meters in diameter—is now more likely to strike the Moon in six years. While the asteroid itself poses minimal risk to Earth, an impact on the lunar surface could still have serious consequences.
Experts warn that a lunar impact could eject vast amounts of debris into space, endangering satellites and the International Space Station (ISS). It might also trigger a dazzling meteor shower visible from Earth, but could raise the risk of impacts on space infrastructure.
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A NASA-led team, headed by Brent Barbee from the Goddard Space Flight Center, has evaluated several strategies to mitigate the threat. Their findings are detailed in a preprint paper currently under peer review.
Traditionally, the strategy for such threats involves deflecting the object by crashing a spacecraft into it—a method successfully demonstrated during NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission, which altered the orbit of asteroid Dimorphos. However, Barbee’s team believes deflecting 2024 YR4 could be too risky.
Unlike DART’s controlled mission, 2024 YR4 presents unique challenges: its exact mass and composition are still unknown, and there may not be enough time to plan a safe deflection. A miscalculated attempt could even send the asteroid toward Earth.
Due to these uncertainties, scientists are leaning toward destruction over deflection. They propose redirecting missions like Psyche or OSIRIS-APEX to observe 2024 YR4 during its close Earth-Moon flyby in 2028, which could provide vital data on its trajectory and composition.
To neutralize the threat, the team has proposed a “kinetic disruption mission” using nuclear explosive devices. According to a Futurism report, the plan involves sending two 100-kilotonne nuclear devices to the asteroid—each with a blast roughly five to eight times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
In essence, scientists are contemplating a real-life version of the Hollywood blockbuster Armageddon to deal with 2024 YR4.
The team’s proposal has been submitted to the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, with the preprint available on arXiv.
