Media365
A potential improvement in the Middle East situation could revive regional trade flows, boost cargo movement and benefit companies such as Adani Ports, JSW Infrastructure, Concor and Delhivery, according to global brokerage Jefferies.
A possible easing of geopolitical tensions in West Asia could provide a significant boost to India’s port and logistics sector, with the normalisation of regional trade supporting cargo movement and business activity, according to a report by global brokerage Jefferies.
The brokerage said that although the timing and outcome of any peace process remain uncertain, a reduction in tensions could improve the outlook for Indian companies dependent on trade and energy flows from the Middle East.
Jefferies identified Container Corporation of India (Concor), Delhivery, JSW Infrastructure, Adani Ports and Aegis Vopak Terminals as potential beneficiaries of an improvement in the regional situation.
The report also highlighted that India’s ports have demonstrated greater resilience than rail-based logistics during the ongoing West Asia tensions.
India’s trade with Middle East stands at $229 billion
India’s trade with the Middle East stood at $229 billion in FY26, with petroleum, oil and lubricants (POL) accounting for a significant share.
Excluding POL, gems and jewellery, merchandise trade between India and the region amounted to $90 billion, representing around 11 per cent of India’s total export-import (EXIM) trade.
The impact of regional tensions has been reflected in cargo movement across Indian ports and railways.
More from BusinessIndian port volumes have grown 4 per cent year-on-year since March 2026, below their historical growth rate of 6 per cent. POL cargo volumes increased by 2 per cent during the period.
Container volumes, however, registered 7 per cent growth, supported by higher transshipment activity. This helped partially offset weakness in export-import cargo movement.
In contrast, Indian Railways’ container volumes declined 5 per cent, as increased transshipment activity did not translate into similar gains for hinterland logistics.
Ports remain Jefferies’ preferred bet over logistics
Jefferies maintained its structural preference for port companies over logistics operators, citing capacity additions, the government’s terminal privatisation initiatives at major ports and improvements in operational efficiency.
The brokerage said its estimates already factor in the prolonged impact of West Asia tensions through FY27, followed by a gradual recovery in FY28.
However, an earlier-than-expected easing of geopolitical tensions could create upside risks to its estimates, supported by improving regional trade, higher cargo throughput and better utilisation across the sector.
While uncertainty surrounding the peace process remains a key risk, a recovery in Middle East trade flows could provide fresh momentum to India’s port and logistics industry.
