Trump targets South Africa again. What happens to its $1.5 billion US exports?

US President Donald Trump has moved to remove South Africa from a preferential trade programme that allows African countries to export certain goods to the United States without paying import duties, putting billions of dollars in trade benefits at risk and deepening tensions between Washington and Pretoria.

Trump informed Congress and the South African government on Monday that he intended to withdraw the country from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade programme established in 2000 to strengthen economic ties between the United States and African nations.

The decision is scheduled to take effect in January next year. South Africa exported around $1.5 billion worth of goods to the US under the programme last year, accounting for approximately 10 per cent of its total exports to the American market.

The move is the latest in a series of punitive measures taken by the Trump administration against South Africa. Washington has repeatedly accused Pretoria of policies that it claims discriminate against the country’s white minority, while also raising concerns over South Africa’s diplomatic relations with countries such as Iran and its position on Israel.

What is AGOA and why does it matter to South Africa?

The African Growth and Opportunity Act is a US trade programme introduced in 2000 to provide eligible African countries with duty-free access to the American market for thousands of products.

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It covers a range of goods, including agricultural products, manufactured items, textiles and clothing, allowing qualifying exports to enter the US without the additional costs associated with import duties.

The programme is designed to encourage trade, investment and economic development across Africa by giving eligible countries preferential access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets.

South Africa has been the largest beneficiary of AGOA. Its access to the programme has helped exporters compete in the American market, particularly in sectors such as automobiles, agricultural products and manufacturing.

According to the figures cited in the report, South Africa exported approximately $1.5 billion in goods to the US through AGOA in 2025. Losing preferential access could make these products more expensive for American importers and weaken the competitiveness of South African exporters.

Why has Trump targeted South Africa?

The latest decision follows months of deteriorating relations between Washington and Pretoria.

Trump and senior members of his administration have repeatedly criticised South Africa’s affirmative action policies, which were introduced to address the economic and social inequalities created during the apartheid era.

The US president has argued that these policies discriminate against the country’s white minority. He has also objected to South African laws requiring companies to have partial Black ownership, claiming that such requirements discourage American investment.

Trump has separately made claims about the treatment of Afrikaners, a white ethnic group in South Africa. He has alleged that they face persecution and that the South African government is seizing land from white farmers. The South African government has rejected the allegations of a genocide and disputed Washington’s characterisation of its policies.

Diplomatic disagreements have extended beyond domestic policy.

Washington has criticised Pretoria for maintaining close relations with Iran and for taking Israel to the International Court of Justice over allegations of genocide in Gaza.

South Africa has also faced criticism from US lawmakers over its relations with Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The trade decision therefore comes against the backdrop of a much wider diplomatic dispute rather than a disagreement limited to tariffs and market access.

What has the US said about the decision?

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration had serious concerns about South African policies.

In a statement, Greer cited barriers to US trade and investment, corruption, and what Washington described as threats to American national security and foreign policy interests.

The statement did not provide detailed explanations of the specific trade barriers or policies that prompted the latest decision.

Rwanda has also been named for removal from the programme.

Under AGOA, the US trade representative conducts annual reviews to assess whether participating countries continue to meet eligibility requirements. These include criteria relating to human rights, the rule of law, economic policies and national security.

South Africa’s eligibility had also come under scrutiny during the Biden administration, with bipartisan groups of US lawmakers raising concerns over Pretoria’s foreign policy positions.

How has South Africa responded?

South Africa’s Trade Ministry described Washington’s decision as unfortunate.

Pretoria said it would continue engaging with the United States to pursue mutually beneficial trade arrangements. At the same time, it would accelerate efforts to diversify its trading partners and reduce dependence on the American market.

South African officials had already been working towards a trade agreement with Washington, even as the Trump administration imposed additional trade restrictions.

When Trump announced his global tariff measures in 2025, South Africa was among the countries subjected to a particularly high rate of 30 per cent.

What happens to South Africa’s exports now?

South Africa’s removal from AGOA does not mean that its exporters will automatically lose access to the US market.

Instead, goods that previously qualified for duty-free treatment under the programme could become subject to applicable US import tariffs once the withdrawal takes effect.

This could increase costs for American buyers and make South African products less competitive against goods from countries that continue to enjoy preferential access.

The consequences could be significant for exporters operating on relatively thin margins, particularly if they are unable to pass additional costs on to customers.

Companies could respond by absorbing some of the higher costs, renegotiating prices with American buyers or redirecting shipments to alternative markets.

The extent of the impact will depend on the tariff rates applied to individual products and whether Washington and Pretoria reach a separate trade understanding before January 1.

For South Africa, the challenge will be to protect its exporters while maintaining access to a major international market.

The government has already indicated that it wants to expand commercial relationships with other countries rather than rely heavily on the United States.

Trump’s pressure on South Africa extends beyond trade

The proposed removal from AGOA is part of a broader campaign by the Trump administration against Pretoria.

In September, Washington imposed visa restrictions on South Africans accused by the administration of discriminating against white people. US officials also warned of further punitive measures unless South Africa addressed several American demands, including changes to its affirmative action laws.

Trump has also excluded South Africa from the Group of 20 summit scheduled to take place in Florida next month.

The latest trade decision could further complicate efforts by the two governments to rebuild relations.