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Bypass pipelines, alternative supplies, electrification, higher inventories and demand management could help reduce the impact of another major disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, but implementation remains uncertain.
Energy security measures already underway or under discussion could offset 35 per cent to 70 per cent of the oil flows that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the 2026 crisis by 2030, if the region faces another major disruption, according to a report by McKinsey Global Institute.
However, McKinsey cautioned that the estimate is not a forecast and would depend on whether the projects and measures currently being discussed are actually implemented.
The measures identified by McKinsey include faster electrification, developing alternative oil and gas supplies, building bypass pipelines, reshaping trade flows, increasing inventories, managing demand and expanding clean energy.
The upper end of the potential range would depend on how many of the projects discussed following the 2026 crisis eventually become operational, the report said.
Energy system has absorbed much of the disruption
Around 21 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of crude and refined products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting the importance of the strategic waterway to global energy markets.
McKinsey said the global energy system has so far absorbed much of the disruption through temporary buffers, bypass pipelines and changes in international trade flows.
More from BusinessSome oil continued to move through the Strait, while inventory adjustments, alternative pipeline routes, higher supplies from outside the Gulf and weaker demand helped narrow the resulting supply-demand gap.
But the consulting firm warned that existing buffers are coming under increasing strain.
The report noted that around two-thirds of global energy trade passes through maritime chokepoints, while about one-third crosses geopolitical boundaries, leaving the energy system vulnerable to future disruptions.
Bypass pipelines could play a key role
According to McKinsey, bypass pipelines could provide the largest share of the potential offset by 2030.
These pipelines would not necessarily replace Gulf oil under normal market conditions. Instead, they could provide alternative routes and additional capacity, giving oil producers and traders greater flexibility if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.
McKinsey said energy security in the longer term would require a combination of measures rather than reliance on a single solution.
Improving energy efficiency could also have a significant economic impact. Bringing companies closer to best-practice energy efficiency levels could reduce industrial energy costs by as much as $600 billion annually, the report said.
The report said energy security is increasingly about creating multiple layers of optionality, through more sources of supply, alternative routes, larger buffers and greater diversification, rather than attempting to eliminate dependence on any single source or route.
