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A tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours, while weather models cited by Southern California meteorologists show it could strengthen into a hurricane later this week before weakening and potentially moving towards the region.The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the system, designated EP95 — its identifier for the eastern Pacific disturbance being monitored, was well offshore southwestern Mexico late Sunday and moving generally northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Its showers and thunderstorms remained disorganised, but conditions favoured further development.An earlier NHC outlook had put the 48-hour formation chance at 80% and the seven-day probability at 90%, figures cited by National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Bryan Lewis. The centre later raised the shorter-term probability to 90%.A tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Under official NHC classifications, a tropical storm has winds of 39 to 73 mph, while hurricane strength begins at 74 mph.“Once the depression forms, the National Hurricane Center will then likely write a discussion about it and include probabilities of tropical storm or even hurricane formation, so stay tuned for that,” Lewis said.The NHC has not yet issued an official track or intensity forecast for EP95, meaning projections of a hurricane and a possible Southern California approach remain model scenarios rather than an official forecast.
Models show possible Southern California approach
Kaj Goldberg, a meteorologist with KTLA, a Los Angeles television station, said forecasters were closely watching the disturbance. The station said weather prediction models showed a strong possibility of an eye developing off Baja California by Thursday, although the NHC has not forecast an eye forming at this stage. “This is the disturbance that, if it does form and come together, could make its way right into Southern California about one week from today,” Goldberg said.He said the system could reach hurricane strength by Friday or Saturday before weakening by Saturday night or early Sunday. Under the scenario discussed by KTLA, it could then move farther north and make landfall in Southern California as a tropical storm.The station said such a track could bring heavy rain and extreme humidity into the following week, with flooding possible.The NWS is more cautious about those potential impacts. Lewis separately told the Los Angeles Times that there was still a high degree of uncertainty over whether the developing system would bring rain to Southern California, although higher surf and stronger rip currents were more likely over the Labor Day weekend.
Tropical storm landfalls rare in California
Direct tropical-storm landfalls from the Pacific are rare in California. An unnamed storm struck near Long Beach in 1939, while Hurricane Nora entered California as a tropical storm in 1997 after first making landfall in Mexico, according to the NWS. “However, several tropical systems have weakened below tropical storm strength before making landfall,” Lewis said. “Most recently, Hilary brought significant rainfall and impacts to Southern California in August 2023. Hilary was not a tropical storm by the time it reached California.”The NHC’s final analysis found that Hilary lost its tropical characteristics over northern Baja California and became post-tropical before moving into Southern California. Despite weakening, it brought significant rainfall and flooding to the region.
Karina reaches Category 3 ahead of forecast
The disturbance is developing during an active period in the Pacific. KTLA reported that three storms were contributing to increased swells in Southern California, including Hurricane Karina, which was then a Category 1 storm and was forecast to potentially reach Category 3 by late Monday night or early Tuesday.Karina strengthened much faster. By Sunday evening it had become a Category 3 major hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph while remaining far offshore and moving westwards. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, though the NHC said its swells would generate dangerous surf and rip currents along southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula.The NWS separately warned of a high rip-current risk along Los Angeles County beaches. An earlier Sunday forecast listed surf of up to 6 feet and water temperatures as high as 76 degrees Fahrenheit, while a later update listed temperatures of 71 to 75 degrees.
Marine heat wave keeps coastal waters unusually warm
KTLA linked the potential storm to a “super” El Niño brewing in the Pacific and noted that the climate pattern is associated with warmer waters in the eastern Pacific.Citing NWS data, it reported sea surface temperatures across Southern California at 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the time of year, with readings of 74 to 76 degrees along Los Angeles County beaches.The relationship between El Niño and the current marine heat wave is more nuanced, however. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has tracked a marine heat wave off central and Southern California since May 2025, before the present El Niño developed. NOAA says more recent warming off Southern California may increasingly reflect El Niño’s influence.
El Niño has more than 90% chance of becoming very strong
El Niño is characterised by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and can affect atmospheric circulation and tropical-cyclone activity.The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, says El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a “very strong event” during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.The climate pattern can influence conditions in which tropical cyclones develop, but it does not determine the path or strength of an individual storm.For EP95, the next significant development will be the start of NHC advisories if the disturbance becomes sufficiently organised. Those would provide official track and intensity forecasts and indicate whether the modelled Southern California scenario gains or loses support.
