India is projected to add 8.2 crore affluent consumers over the next decade, overtaking China by 2036 as rising spending power reshapes the country’s consumer market
India is on course to overtake China in the number of affluent consumers by 2036, a shift that could redraw the map of global consumer spending and give companies a powerful new reason to look beyond China for their next big growth market.
The number of Indians spending more than $90 a day is projected to rise to 10.8 crore by 2036, edging past China’s estimated 10.3 crore, according to a report by NielsenIQ (NIQ) and World Data Lab.
India currently has an estimated 2.6 crore consumers in this high-spending category. That means the country could add another 8.2 crore affluent consumers over the next decade, marking the largest increase among the markets highlighted in the report.
The United States will remain the world’s biggest affluent consumer market, with an estimated 23.1 crore people in the category by 2036.
The projections are based on consumer spending rather than income or wealth. NIQ and World Data Lab classify people spending more than $90 a day as affluent consumers, while those spending between $13 and $90 a day are defined as core consumers.
The numbers point to a larger transformation underway in India. The country is no longer merely being viewed as a market of vast population and low-cost consumption. Over the next decade, it could emerge as one of the world’s most important markets for both mass consumption and premium spending.
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India’s projected rise is striking because of the scale of the increase.
From 2.6 crore affluent consumers in 2026, the number is expected to climb by more than four times to 10.8 crore by 2036. China, while continuing to add affluent consumers, is projected to reach 10.3 crore.
The crossover would be significant for multinational companies that have long treated China as Asia’s principal premium consumption story.
India, however, will not become a premium market at the expense of its mass market. The report estimates that the country already has about 64.9 crore core consumers — people spending between $13 and $90 a day.
That creates a consumer market of unusual depth. Millions of Indians are expected to move into higher spending brackets even as a far larger population continues to drive demand for affordable products and everyday essentials.
For businesses, the opportunity will increasingly lie at both ends of the market.
The report says emerging markets have a different growth path from mature economies. Rising incomes can expand the mass market and create volume opportunities, while the growth of affluent populations opens fresh scope for premium products.
Why the affluent consumer matters
The affluent segment is smaller in number globally, but its spending power is disproportionately large.
NIQ and World Data Lab estimate that the world will have 65.7 crore affluent consumers in 2026, compared with about 410 crore core consumers. Yet affluent consumers are projected to spend $35.9 trillion this year, more than the $31.6 trillion expected from the much larger core-consumer group.
Annual spending per affluent consumer is estimated at about $54,700, nearly seven times the roughly $7,900 spent by a core consumer.
By 2036, global spending by affluent consumers is projected to reach $64 trillion, against $46 trillion for core consumers.
For India, therefore, the significance of adding 8.2 crore people to the affluent bracket goes beyond a change in demographic rankings. It means a much larger pool of consumers with the capacity to spend more on higher-value goods and services.
That could reshape opportunities across sectors ranging from packaged goods and retail to beauty, personal care, food, travel and other discretionary categories.
India is becoming a two-speed consumer market
But the report also carries a warning for companies hoping to capitalise on this rise: more money does not mean consumers will spend without asking questions.
The new affluent consumer is not necessarily an indiscriminate consumer.
NIQ found that 60% of consumers identified as having an upgrade mindset focus on value for money. About 46% said they were willing to pay for convenience, while 38% were open to trying new products or brands.
Consumers are willing to pay more when a product offers a clear advantage — whether in quality, convenience, performance, trust or relevance. But they are equally prepared to trade down when the premium is unclear or a cheaper alternative does the job just as well.
That distinction may become increasingly important in India.
A consumer may spend more on one product but seek savings on another. The same household can move between premium and value choices depending on the category, the occasion and whether the higher price appears justified.
NIQ and World Data Lab argue that these are not fixed consumer identities. Shopping behaviour increasingly shifts according to need and perceived value.
The premium has to be earned
The report’s central message for companies is straightforward: premiumisation cannot simply be another word for charging more.
The premium has to be earned.
Global FMCG prices rose 26% between 2021 and 2025, according to NIQ. The years of inflation have made consumers more conscious of what they buy and more demanding about what they receive in return.
Even consumers with greater spending power may reject a higher-priced product if they cannot see a compelling difference. Equally, consumers under financial pressure may stretch their budgets when they believe the product offers genuine value.
This is why the report argues that the traditional idea of targeting an “average consumer” is losing relevance.
“The average consumer is no longer a reliable growth target,” it says, as consumer behaviour becomes more polarised between products that clearly justify a premium and those that offer a strong value proposition.
Products caught in the middle face the greatest risk: neither distinctive enough to command a higher price nor affordable enough to become the obvious value choice.
The report describes a retail landscape where growth is increasingly concentrated at the premium and value ends, putting mainstream offerings under pressure.
What India’s rise means for brands
India’s projected emergence as the world’s second-largest affluent consumer market will require companies to rethink how they approach the country.
The old strategy of treating India primarily as a volume market may no longer be enough. But nor will a simple push towards premium products work in a country where hundreds of millions of consumers remain highly conscious of affordability.
Companies will have to do both.
They will need products that can win on price and value, while also developing offerings that give India’s expanding affluent population a credible reason to spend more.
That could mean different pack sizes, sharper price points, better product differentiation and clearer communication about why a premium offering is worth paying for.
The opportunity is substantial. But the report suggests the winners will not necessarily be the companies that charge the most or sell the cheapest.
They will be the ones that understand where Indian consumers are willing to upgrade — and where they are determined to save.
India’s consumer story over the next decade, therefore, may be about more than the sheer number of people entering the marketplace. It may increasingly be about a fundamental change in the quality and scale of spending.
If the projections hold, India will add 8.2 crore affluent consumers by 2036 and move ahead of China in a measure closely watched by global brands.
For the world’s consumer companies, that would make India not just the next big volume market, but one of the biggest prizes in the global race for premium spending.
